The Iranian question

What’s happening in Iran is truly scary. It’s hard to believe that the leader of an entire country can be actually stupid, and despite what people say about George Bush, he’s not stupid, and neither is Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Instead, both these guys are just working from fundamentally different mindsets. Different from mine and different from yours, probably. I don’t agree with them, but I understand them.

In the case of the Iranians, they are hosting an international conference questioning the Holocaust. Rather, they say they’re holding an international conference to facilitate the free exchange of views and discussion of the holocaust and its implications in modern politics internationally and in the Middle East.

That just happens to mostly involve questioning the holocaust. The two-day gathering has attarcted some of the world's most notorious Holocaust deniers, Nazi sympathizers and scholars such as former Ku Klux Klan Grand Wizard David Duke.

In a horrible way, the Irianians have a strange depraved point. It’s not really possible to freely debate whether the holocaust really happened in the West. But there’s a good reason for this – this is the very definition of a loaded subject, and some things are too offensive to be treated lightly, or in this case, in a way that dishonours the memory of the millions who were brutalised and murdered during the holocaust.

Funnily enough, there is a healthy dose of irony in the fact that the government of Iran says it’s hosting this conference to allow the free discussion of these issues because that’s not possible in Europe and the US. Funny, I wonder how far you’d get questioning the government of Iran on its policies?

Human rights groups frequently number Iran as one of the world's worst violators of free speech. So is the government of Iran really all that concerned with a perceived lack of free speech amongst racists and nutty anti-semetic hate mongers in the west? I think not.

Rather, they are keen to have a go at Israel, the Jewish state parachuted into the Middle East in 1948. Personally, I have a lot of problems with the way Israel conducts its foreign policies - it has undoubtedly committed atrocities against the Palestinians. However, there are two sides to every story, and regardless of where your political opinions on this matter lie, the Israeli question will be solved with diplomacy and support from the international community.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would like to see Israel disappear, but I think he knows this isn’t going to happen. However, when a politician is faced with a political reality like this, they have two choices.

The first is to admit that this is never going to happen, and deal with the reality of the situation, making the best of the situation. However, when you are the ruler of a country which is home to a very large number of people with a chip on their shoulder about the Western world and in particular the pro-US bastion of Western culture that is Israel, this is not a vote getter, even supposing Iran was a true democracy, which it’s not, and there were votes to get, which there aren’t.

Instead, you appeal to the lowest common denominator. Ahmadinejad has previously referred to the killing of six million Jews in the Second World War as a "myth" and has called for Israel to be "wiped off the map". He knows this is never going to happen, but by making comments like this. he is appealing to the basest, least attractive aspects of the personalities of his fellow Iranians. And guess what? A certain kind of person likes that kind of thing.

He’s not unique in this regard – there are plenty of leaders all around the world who have used this exact tactic, and used it well to build lengthy political careers. Adolf Hitler springs to mind, but you can see the same technique in use in pretty much every country in the world, to greater or lesser degrees.

However, in Iran we have another problem – the manner in which this country’s politicians have parleyed a perceived sense of international disapproval into a victim mentality, except this victim probably has nuclear weapons and really is crazy enough to use them.

As a result, we can see that Western governments are treating Iran with kid gloves, in a way that they didn’t Iraq. And rightfully so. They’re looking for the back door for Iran.

There’s an figure of speech that says that even a mouse might attack a cat if it’s cornered. This expression is used in the teaching of strategy, and it basically refers to the idea that backing people into corners is usually not a good idea – people do rash things when they feel they've no choice.

Instead, negotiators need to keep your eye on the goal – what is the best solution to any problem, aside from the personal satisfaction that might come from victory? Give the other side the option of backing down while saving face. That way, you don’t create resentment and you avoid fuelling a future problem.

In this case, stupid and offensive things like this conference are merely condemned vocally by world leaders, but does anyone think Iran gives a hoot what Tony Blair says? Or the leader of Israel or France or any of the many many nations that have condemned the conference. Of, course not.

It does care about sanctions and economic prosperity and a whole host of other less tangible issues, and this is where the back door will be found. Iran will back down as trade is encouraged between it and west and mutually compatible economic grounds are explored. Or it will be the cause of the first nuclear way. That’s if North Korea doesn’t beat them to it.

As an aside, did you know that the name Iran is a cognate of Aryan and literally means "Land of the Aryans." Hmm.